Stockholm, Sweden — Sweden has reached a historic public health milestone, with daily smoking prevalence falling to 3.7% in 2025, according to the latest data from the Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs (CAN). 1 This places the country well below the 5% threshold commonly used to define a smoke-free society. 2
This reflects a sustained decline in smoking, driven by a combination of traditional tobacco control measures and the widespread adoption of non-combustible alternatives, particularly snus and, more recently, nicotine pouches. This transition has been supported by a regulatory framework that keeps these products accessible, including Sweden’s exemption from the EU ban on snus and the adoption of lower taxation on non-combustible nicotine products compared to cigarettes 3.
This experience is particularly relevant in the current European policy context where smoking rates have slowly declined across the European Union by 14.2% since 2012, while Sweden saw a 67.5% drop in the same period. 4,5
Recently, the European Commission published an evaluation report on the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), signalling a shift toward stricter and more uniform regulation of nicotine products. Recommendations in the report include extending restrictions originally designed for combustible tobacco to non-combustible alternatives such as nicotine pouches, potentially limiting their availability across the EU. 6
Sweden represents a distinct case within this context. A defining feature of its approach has been the shift away from cigarettes toward non-combustible nicotine products, which significantly reduce exposure to harmful toxicants. This has translated into measurable public health gains, with substantially lower rates of smoking-related disease. Sweden reports 36% fewer lung cancer deaths, 31.3% fewer total cancer deaths, 21.1% fewer smoking-related deaths, 25.3% fewer deaths from other smoking-related causes, and a 12% reduction in cardiovascular mortality compared to EU averages, based on international health estimates. 7,8
These outcomes are associated with the availability, affordability and acceptability of non-combustible nicotine products within a regulated and consumer-oriented framework, creating a clear policy contrast: the Swedish experience shows how access to lower-risk alternatives can drive rapid declines in smoking prevalence, while proposed EU measures move toward restricting those same products.
Sweden offers a real-world case study of a large-scale, population-level transition away from combustible tobacco, where consumer uptake of alternative products has been central to progress. The next version of the TPD will determine whether future European policy aligns with this trajectory or moves toward a more restrictive regulatory environment, with the potential for unintended consequences.
The results seen in Sweden demonstrate that ending smoking is possible. With daily smoking at 3.7%, this progress is reflected not only in the data, but in fewer deaths and a lower burden of disease. Sweden’s low smoking rates have led to longer life expectancy, improved health outcomes, and a higher quality of life.
Will the rest of Europe follow, or fall behind?
1. Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs (CAN)
https://www.can.se/in-english/
2. WHO Europe – Tobacco-free generation (≤5% benchmark context)
https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/librariesprovider2/euro-health-topics/tobacco/20170428_who-tobaccofreegeneration-draft09.pdf
3. Swedish Government press release: proposal to reduce tax on snus and increase tax on cigarettes
https://regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2024/04/regeringen-foreslar-sankt-skatt-pa-snus-och-hojd-skatt-pa-cigaretter/
4. European Commission – Attitudes of Europeans towards tobacco and related products (Special Eurobarometer 385, 429, 506 and 539; various editions)
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer
5. Public Health Agency of Sweden – Use of tobacco and nicotine products
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/living-conditions-and-lifestyle/andtg/tobacco/use-of-tobacco-and-nicotine-products/
6. European Commission – TPD Revision
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_771
7. OECD / EU – Health at a Glance: Europe 2024
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/health-at-a-glance-europe-2024_b3704e14-en.html
8. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – Global Burden of Disease (GBD)
https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd